SFABs train, advise, assist, enable, and accompany operations with allied and partner nations, thus reducing the burden on BCTs, which would otherwise have to deploy in pieces for this mission. The Army has finished establishing the Security Force Advisory Brigades (SFABs), five in the regular force and one in the National Guard. The regular Army is more equipment intensive, with 58 percent of BCTs being medium or heavy.Īs Table 3 shows, the total Army has also been getting heavier, which is unsurprising since it has reoriented itself from a focus on counterinsurgency, which needs infantry, to a focus on great power conflict, which needs firepower. This reduces the need for vehicle maintenance, which is difficult with part-time personnel. The National Guard is mostly infantry (74 percent). There is a major difference in the BCT balance between the components. The Army Reserve, which consists mostly of support units (“enablers”), retains two Theater Aviation Brigades (TABS). The Army National Guard will maintain its current force of 27 BCTs and 8 Combat Aviation Brigades (CABs). The regular Army maintains 31 Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs), and 11 Combat Aviation Brigades (CABs), with no net change from FY 2020 to FY 2021. There are no major force structure changes in FY 2021. However, such talk has nearly disappeared as the Army has struggled to maintain its current strength. FY 2019 plans called for expansion to 1,040,000 by FY 2023, and Army officials had talked about even higher levels. The Army had fought hard against plans in the Obama administration to drop to 980,000 soldiers, regular and reserve, or lower. They have stayed at the lower end strength level but seem able to hold that. On balance, the effect seems to help end strength since the Army overachieved in FY 2020.Ĭivilian personnel levels dropped in FY 2020 but will return to their former level.Įnd strength for the Army reserve components showed a dip in FY 2019 similar to that seen in the regular forces but not the subsequent recovery. Also, pandemic related precautions such as social distancing limit the throughput in the training establishment. On the other hand, recruiters must do most of their work online and thus have less personal contact. On the one hand, downturns make recruiting easier. The pandemic has affected Army end strength. It proposes a small increase of 900 in FY 2021. It moderated the goal for FY 2020 to 480,000 but was actually able to achieve 485,000. In that year, the Army aimed for 487,500 but only attained 478,000. Regular Army end strength recovered after a dip caused by recruiting and retention difficulties in FY 2019. In an environment of constrained resources, the Army will need to cut existing Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs) if it wants to build new units and procure new systems.More good news is a few new systems are coming out of the research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) “primordial soup.” The bad news is that the Army is still several years away from having a new generation of systems in production to take it into the 2020s and beyond and set it up for potential combat against great power adversaries. Army modernization, which forms the basis for future forces, is a mix of good and bad news: the good news is that the Army continues production of proven systems and has a well-modernized force as a result.There is now less tension between regular Army and its reserve components as a result of closer consultations, higher overall budgets, and shared recruitment challenges. The active-reserve mix has stabilized at 52 percent Guard/Reserve, 48 percent active.Other new kinds of units, such as the widely discussed multidomain brigades, remain mostly conceptual. Security Force Advisory Brigades continue despite their focus on stability operations. New air and missile defense units are entering the force.This represents a substantial reduction to earlier growth plans, but probably the most expansion that can be done in the current budget and security environment. The regular Army and Army Guard project small increases through FY 2025 the Army Reserve will stay essentially level.After a dip in personnel strength in FY 2019, both regular and reserve components have recovered.With modernization, the Army has increased production of proven systems and shifted billions into development of high-priority programs to prepare the Army for great power conflict. Army plans slow expansion through FY 2025, but a constrained budget environment will force it to choose between maintaining the units it has and building new kinds of structures.
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